We thought we had it all figured out before this week started.
We were wrong.
The top minds in the investment business offered some novel analysis, broke conventional wisdom, and even opened our eyes to some misperceptions.
What follows are excerpts from 11 of our best stories this week. All of the important pieces of research you might have missed this week, right here.
Barclays Debunks The Greatest 'Urban Legend' Of The Labor Market
"Of those who dropped out of the labor force since Q4 2007, only 34.5% are classified as wanting a job, and only 14.7% want a job and are of prime working age (ie, 25-54). We see the 0.7pp rise since Q4 07 in those workers who are not in the labor force, but have said they want a job, as consistent with the current cyclical gap we estimated in the previous section. The fact that the majority of those who fall in the “no longer want a job” category are in the 55+ age bracket suggests a significant move into retirement."
Even Super-Bull Jeff Saut Thinks This Rally Is Getting 'Unnatural'
"The call for this week: There have now been 37 trading sessions in 2012 and so far the S&P 500 has yet to experience a 1% Downside Day. This 37-session, or more, skein has occurred 11 other times in the past 84 years and has on every occasion except one seen the equity markets higher by the end of the year. Still, the rise since the "buying stampede" ended, which stopped on January 26, 2012 at Dow 12841.95, has felt unnatural to me."
Goldman Explains Why We Have No Idea What Really Happens When Gas Hits $4/Gallon
"The idea that consumers might respond to a psychologically important price level seems intuitive enough, but it is difficult to test the importance of the effect of the $4.00/gallon threshold since it has only been crossed once, for six weeks in June and July 2008."
See the rest of the story at Business Insider
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See Also:
- The 10 Big Stocks That Mutual Funds Are Crazy About
- Goldman Sachs On The Connection Between Non-Farm Payrolls And Theme Park Revenue
- Even Super-Bull Jeff Saut Thinks This Rally Is Getting 'Unnatural'